Fashion Forecasting: Predicting future trends in fashion
Fashion lives on the cusp of the next new thing. In this rapidly accelerating industry, staying ahead of trends confers competitive edge. Fashion forecasting satisfies the style world’s hunger for what’s next by predicting the looks, colors, fabrics and silhouettes expected to consume mass attention in upcoming seasons.
“Essentially, forecasters function like futurists for the fashion realm,” explains Julia Jones, lead forecaster for industry leader Tobe Associates. “We analyze past and present trends, study wider cultural shifts and conduct primary consumer research to hypothesize what styles will catch fire tomorrow.”
Though hardly an exact science, seasoned professionals forecast future aesthetics with surprising accuracy. After all, fashion evolves along distinct trajectories. By understanding what drives trend cycles, forecasters can reliably chart the style evolution timeline.
“You have merchants and designers who depend on our reports to start manufacturing clothes and accessories months before anyone walks a runway,” notes Jones. “The entire fashion machine turns on these predictions.”
Invaluable as this glimpse into tomorrow remains, plenty still wonder how forecasters actually predict the next new thing. What does the job really entail? And could AI ever replace intuitive, creative human analysts?
Here Jones lets us in on trade secrets, common misconceptions and why she believes her role will only grow more vital.
The Past Holds Clues to the Future
While fashion forecasting requires strong creative instincts, the job rests firmly on an analytical foundation. Trend predicting begins by studying previous style eras to spot patterns in what captivates consumers.
“Fashion recaps itself every 20 to 30 years with past aesthetics revived and renewed for the modern age,” explains Jones. “Understanding what came before, why it resonated then and how it may evolve now based on current affairs represents step one.”
Common trend cycles include the return of fabric textures like velvet or overarching eras like 80’s neon brights. Tracing the last appearance of still nascent ideas identifies soon-to-surge trends.
“Fashion reflects the cultural zeitgeist,” notes Jones. “So we have to immerse ourselves in art, politics, music and design happening today for context.”
These insights get combined with sales data, runway images and consumer surveys to start calculating what’s next.
Humans Read Nuances AI Misses
Some assume AI could generate computational trend forecasts by ingesting decades of fashion images and sales data. But while Jones agrees big data and algorithms aid prediction, she insists technology still misses much human analysts easily catch.
“Algorithms struggle reading subtext. They cannot sense sociopolitical undercurrents shaping certain aesthetics or emotions tied to emerging styles,” explains Jones. “Fashion remains an intensely psychological field still best interpreted by human specialists.”
Indeed, trend forecasting relies greatly on intuition honed by years studying minute style details. Pattern recognizing and gut instincts allow forecasters to make inspired leaps statistical models may dismiss.
Likewise, AI cannot yet account for paradigm-shifting events sending fashion down entirely new paths. Take recent sustainability efforts promoting circular economies.
“Tech saw zero indicators reusable, biodegradable materials would dominate,” notes Jones. “We human analysts sensed growing environmental activism made eco-conscious clothing inevitable.”
In short, machines currently lack human creativity, empathy and critical thinking enabling accurate trend predictions. They prove complementary tools best wielded by insightful experts.
The Forecasting Process and Deliverables
So what does the fashion forecasting workflow look like? Tobe’s team spends autumn through spring compiling data, identifying themes, creating seasonal trend reports and presenting findings via various formats for different industry segments.
“We deliver online dashboards to track specific categories like prints or sneakers along with three major books,” details Jones.
Fall/Winter and Spring/Summer trend books capture aesthetics for the coming six main shopping periods. These hefty tomes outlinepredicted popular fabrics, patterns, silhouettes, accessories and color palettes across men’s, women’s and children's wear. The annual consumer report profiles five persona groups detailing their aesthetic preferences and purchasing habits.
Such exhaustive documentation allows clients to start designing future collections well ahead of market release. Some fast fashion labels have already begun developing 2024’s summer styles.
Why Trend Forecasting Will Thrive
Some assume online consumer insights may soon eliminate the need for forecasters. But Jones stresses brands rely on their perspectives precisely because forecasters take an outsider big picture view.
“We operate at enough distance to spot patterns brands immersed in day-to-day may miss,” she explains. “You need specialists dedicated to continuously tracking the context shaping industry evolution.”
What’s more, forecasting will only grow more vital as fashion accelerates through social media and emerging technologies. As virtual reality expands immersive shopping and digital wearables link clothing to the internet, predicting how consumers may embrace new formats proves critical.
Likewise Web3 experiments around digital fashion and non-fungible token (NFT) based garments further stress forecasting’s value.
“Fashion gets influenced by innovations across all creative fields now,” confirms Jones. “This convergence means we have even more cultural currents to monitor for clues where apparel goes next.”
In essence, fashion forecasting not only equips labels to meet coming demand, informed trend analysis shapes consumer desire itself. Because in style, looking forward provides the essential context for moving fashion, and culture, into the future.
“Essentially, forecasters function like futurists for the fashion realm,” explains Julia Jones, lead forecaster for industry leader Tobe Associates. “We analyze past and present trends, study wider cultural shifts and conduct primary consumer research to hypothesize what styles will catch fire tomorrow.”
Though hardly an exact science, seasoned professionals forecast future aesthetics with surprising accuracy. After all, fashion evolves along distinct trajectories. By understanding what drives trend cycles, forecasters can reliably chart the style evolution timeline.
“You have merchants and designers who depend on our reports to start manufacturing clothes and accessories months before anyone walks a runway,” notes Jones. “The entire fashion machine turns on these predictions.”
Invaluable as this glimpse into tomorrow remains, plenty still wonder how forecasters actually predict the next new thing. What does the job really entail? And could AI ever replace intuitive, creative human analysts?
Here Jones lets us in on trade secrets, common misconceptions and why she believes her role will only grow more vital.
The Past Holds Clues to the Future
While fashion forecasting requires strong creative instincts, the job rests firmly on an analytical foundation. Trend predicting begins by studying previous style eras to spot patterns in what captivates consumers.
“Fashion recaps itself every 20 to 30 years with past aesthetics revived and renewed for the modern age,” explains Jones. “Understanding what came before, why it resonated then and how it may evolve now based on current affairs represents step one.”
Common trend cycles include the return of fabric textures like velvet or overarching eras like 80’s neon brights. Tracing the last appearance of still nascent ideas identifies soon-to-surge trends.
“Fashion reflects the cultural zeitgeist,” notes Jones. “So we have to immerse ourselves in art, politics, music and design happening today for context.”
These insights get combined with sales data, runway images and consumer surveys to start calculating what’s next.
Humans Read Nuances AI Misses
Some assume AI could generate computational trend forecasts by ingesting decades of fashion images and sales data. But while Jones agrees big data and algorithms aid prediction, she insists technology still misses much human analysts easily catch.
“Algorithms struggle reading subtext. They cannot sense sociopolitical undercurrents shaping certain aesthetics or emotions tied to emerging styles,” explains Jones. “Fashion remains an intensely psychological field still best interpreted by human specialists.”
Indeed, trend forecasting relies greatly on intuition honed by years studying minute style details. Pattern recognizing and gut instincts allow forecasters to make inspired leaps statistical models may dismiss.
Likewise, AI cannot yet account for paradigm-shifting events sending fashion down entirely new paths. Take recent sustainability efforts promoting circular economies.
“Tech saw zero indicators reusable, biodegradable materials would dominate,” notes Jones. “We human analysts sensed growing environmental activism made eco-conscious clothing inevitable.”
In short, machines currently lack human creativity, empathy and critical thinking enabling accurate trend predictions. They prove complementary tools best wielded by insightful experts.
The Forecasting Process and Deliverables
So what does the fashion forecasting workflow look like? Tobe’s team spends autumn through spring compiling data, identifying themes, creating seasonal trend reports and presenting findings via various formats for different industry segments.
“We deliver online dashboards to track specific categories like prints or sneakers along with three major books,” details Jones.
Fall/Winter and Spring/Summer trend books capture aesthetics for the coming six main shopping periods. These hefty tomes outlinepredicted popular fabrics, patterns, silhouettes, accessories and color palettes across men’s, women’s and children's wear. The annual consumer report profiles five persona groups detailing their aesthetic preferences and purchasing habits.
Such exhaustive documentation allows clients to start designing future collections well ahead of market release. Some fast fashion labels have already begun developing 2024’s summer styles.
Why Trend Forecasting Will Thrive
Some assume online consumer insights may soon eliminate the need for forecasters. But Jones stresses brands rely on their perspectives precisely because forecasters take an outsider big picture view.
“We operate at enough distance to spot patterns brands immersed in day-to-day may miss,” she explains. “You need specialists dedicated to continuously tracking the context shaping industry evolution.”
What’s more, forecasting will only grow more vital as fashion accelerates through social media and emerging technologies. As virtual reality expands immersive shopping and digital wearables link clothing to the internet, predicting how consumers may embrace new formats proves critical.
Likewise Web3 experiments around digital fashion and non-fungible token (NFT) based garments further stress forecasting’s value.
“Fashion gets influenced by innovations across all creative fields now,” confirms Jones. “This convergence means we have even more cultural currents to monitor for clues where apparel goes next.”
In essence, fashion forecasting not only equips labels to meet coming demand, informed trend analysis shapes consumer desire itself. Because in style, looking forward provides the essential context for moving fashion, and culture, into the future.